Modelling of distribution load pattern for ODI-Olowo and Ikirun road distribution substations, Osogbo

Abstract

Electrical energy occupies the top position in the energy hierarchy and its demand is not always met in Osogbo due to overloading of distribution transformers. In the past, several methods have been used to solve the problem of load demand and forecasting like Parametric Methods, Trend Analysis, Isolated Area Load Forecasting, Long and Short Time Load Forecasting. These methods are often inaccurate since an expensive overestimation of load demand results in substantial investment for the construction of excess power facilities, while underestimation leads to customer dissatisfaction. This work aimed to model the distribution load pattern of Odi-Olowo and Ikirun road distribution substations in Osogbo, Osun state for the purpose of forecasting load demand for the future. Correlation coefficient of 0.661, 0.665 and 0.446 were obtained for transformer 1,2 and 3 respectively. Analysis of Variance indicated about 43.7%, 43% and 19% of the variation in capacity of transformers 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The predicted results showed a high degree of closeness for the distribution load pattern of the three transformers.The model developed can be used to determine the load pattern of electrical distribution substation which will assist utility companies in efficient operation planning.