Wrestling with Uncertainty in Climate Economic Models

W. Brock, L. Hansen
{"title":"Wrestling with Uncertainty in Climate Economic Models","authors":"W. Brock, L. Hansen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3008833","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses insights from decision theory under uncertainty to explore research challenges in climate economics. We embrace a broad perspective of uncertainty with three components: risk (probabilities assigned by a given model), ambiguity (level of confidence in alternative models), and misspecification (potential shortfalls in existing models). We survey recent climate science research that exposes the uncertainty in climate dynamics that is pertinent in economic analyses and relevant for using models to provide policy guidance. The uncertainty components and their implications for decision theory help us frame this evidence and expose the modeling and evidential challenges.","PeriodicalId":400187,"journal":{"name":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","volume":"243 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"64","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"EnergyRN: Energy Economics (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3008833","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 64

Abstract

This paper uses insights from decision theory under uncertainty to explore research challenges in climate economics. We embrace a broad perspective of uncertainty with three components: risk (probabilities assigned by a given model), ambiguity (level of confidence in alternative models), and misspecification (potential shortfalls in existing models). We survey recent climate science research that exposes the uncertainty in climate dynamics that is pertinent in economic analyses and relevant for using models to provide policy guidance. The uncertainty components and their implications for decision theory help us frame this evidence and expose the modeling and evidential challenges.
应对气候经济模型的不确定性
本文运用不确定性下的决策理论来探讨气候经济学的研究挑战。我们对不确定性有三个组成部分:风险(给定模型分配的概率)、模糊性(可选模型的置信度)和错误说明(现有模型的潜在缺陷)。我们调查了最近的气候科学研究,这些研究揭示了气候动力学的不确定性,这些不确定性与经济分析有关,与使用模型提供政策指导有关。不确定性成分及其对决策理论的影响有助于我们构建这一证据,并揭示建模和证据挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信