An Analysis of Uncertainty for Failure Risk Assessment of Power Transformer

Abstract

The diagnostic issues for complex technical objects condition under uncertainty are considered. This problem is relevant in the tasks of ensuring quality, reliability and efficient operation of technical objects. This article is devoted to the problem study of associated with uncertainty in the development and implementation of risk management system for power transformer failure. The proposed approach is based on fuzzy logic. This allows formalizing the expert's knowledge about the fault types of power transformer and decision-making in a multicriteria problem. As a result of the research, a classification of uncertainty types under risk assessment. Recommendations are also made on methods of overcoming problems associated with uncertainty problems that arise during the development and implementation of management systems, through more accurate risk assessment. The proposed approach based on methods of information processing is formalized, convenient for computer implementation and their subsequent verification in the diagnosis of various technical objects.