ANALISIS KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN DENGAN METODE PALMER, THORNTHWAITE, DAN STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX

JURNAL SUMBER DAYA AIR Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI:10.32679/jsda.v17i2.742

Safrudin Nor Aripbilah, Heri Suprapto

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia are one of the reasons that caused climate changes, which has possibility of drought and flood disasters. Sragen Regency wherethe dry season occurs, drought happened meanwhile other areas experience floods and landslides. A study on drought needs to be carried out so as to reduce the risk of losses due to the drought hazard. This study is to determine the drought index in Sragen Regency based on several methods and the correlation of each methods and its suitability to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall. Drought was analyzed using several methods such as Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Thornthwaite-Matter, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) then correlated with SOI to determine the most suitable method for SOI. The variables are applied in this method are rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The results showed that the drought potential of the Palmer method is only in Near Normal conditions, which is 1%, Severe drought conditions are 29% for the Thornthwaite-Matter method, and Extreme Dry conditions only reach 1,11% for the SPI method. The PDSI and SPI methods are inversely proportional to the Thornthwaite-Matter method and the most suitable method for SOI values or rainfall is the SPI method. These three methods can be identified the potential for drought with only a few variables so that they could be applied if they only have those data.Keywords: Drought, PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

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印度尼西亚的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象是造成气候变化的原因之一，有可能发生旱涝灾害。在干旱季节发生的地方，干旱发生了，而其他地区则经历了洪水和山体滑坡。为了减少干旱灾害造成的损失风险，需要开展干旱研究。本研究是基于几种方法、各种方法的相关性及其对南方涛动指数(SOI)和降雨量的适宜性来确定Sragen reggency的干旱指数。利用Palmer干旱严重指数(PDSI)、Thornthwaite-Matter和标准化降水指数(SPI)等方法对干旱进行分析，并与SOI进行相关性分析，以确定最适合SOI的方法。在这种方法中应用的变量是降雨、温度和蒸散发。结果表明，Palmer方法的干旱潜力仅在Near Normal条件下为1%，Thornthwaite-Matter方法的严重干旱条件为29%，而SPI方法的极端干旱条件仅为1.11%。PDSI和SPI方法与Thornthwaite-Matter方法成反比，最适合SOI值或降雨量的方法是SPI方法。这三种方法只需要几个变量就可以确定干旱的可能性，因此只要有这些数据就可以应用这些方法。关键词:干旱，PDSI, Thornthwaite-Matter, SPI, SOI

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JURNAL SUMBER DAYA AIR

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