Impact of the resource boom in the 2000s on Asian-Pacific energy-exporting countries

Abstract

Resource booms generate the Dutch disease and increases vulnerability to resource price shock in resource-dependent countries. This chapter analyzes whether both the global resource boom in 2003-08 and China-induced boom in 2009-13 caused these effects in the Asian-Pacific region. It considers the three coal and gas exporters of Australia, Indonesia and Kazakhstan, the two natural gas exporters of Myanmar and Turkmenistan, and the coal exporter of Mongolia, employing a trade specialization coefficient (TSC) and a relative comparative analysis (RCA) to analyze the impact on export competitiveness by industries. Results reveal that all the six countries suffer from the real appreciation and the Dutch disease, face stronger export specification in resource extraction sectors and low value-added primary and industrial sectors, and exhibit an increasing trade dependency on China ---all of which make them more vulnerable to resource price shocks. The extent, however, depends on the type of fuel for export, resource dependency in its export, its initial industrial structure, international competitiveness, macroeconomic management, and resource governance. China has acquired assets, resources and infrastructure in exchange for reducing its trade deficit, providing little, if any, effective counter measures to allow them to escape from the Dutch disease.