Modeling of Volcano Eruption Risk toward Building Damage and Affected Population in Guntur, Indonesia

Abstract

As the part of countries which located in Ring of Fire, Indonesia has 127 active volcanoes or around 13% of all volcanoes over the world. Dense population around volcanoes slope could lead high risk of loss and damage if the volcano erupt. Population growth is one of the aspects that need to be involved in risk assessment because it always changes over the years and effect the land use/cover change. This research tries to estimate the risk of building damage percentage and population affected volcano eruption, also the direct loss caused by building damage. The study area is Mount Guntur, Indonesia, which located in urban area with high population growth. The estimate risk considers land use/cover change for the modelling of residential building as the exposure, beside population. There are four main data used for the estimation, hazard data, exposure data, vulnerability data, and land use/cover change. As the result, up to 114,912 population will be affected, 115,989 damaged building, and loss up to IDR 11,66 trillion in Guntur, Indonesia.