Methods for Assessing Threats to Criminological Security

Abstract

Modern society is a "society of risk", and crime - its institutional practice. The permanent existence of criminal threats to all spheres and objects of national security of Ukraine, the causes and conditions that give rise to crime and related challenges, presupposes the existence of an integrative component of national security - criminological security. It is impossible to achieve an ideal state of criminological security, because it is impossible to get rid of the corresponding threats completely. At the same time, it is possible to achieve a state of criminological security when crime and its individualized manifestations (criminal offenses), although they will affect society, the level of this influence will be socially acceptable. Maintaining a socially acceptable level of criminological security can best be achieved through risk management, which has long been an integral tool not only for business projects or disaster prevention, but also for planning the life of society in all its spheres in terms of sustainable development. The key to successful application of risk management methodology is effective assessment of threats to criminological security. This research proposes a heuristic methodology for assessing and certification of relevant threats, which is designed to provide forecasting of the dynamics of their development, as well as modeling and support of decisions in the field of crime prevention.