Information and methodological aspects of RES power dissemination simulation using OMMM-TEK model

Abstract

The research topic is the increasing process of electricity generation based on renewable energy sources (RES) in the Russian Federation and its regions. This paper aims to develop a methodology for modeling new RES technologies in the initial period of their dissemination. Its application allows to estimate the scale of energy generation in the regions fr om the standpoint of national economy efficiency. The research methodology includes the application of parametric analysis in the framework of interregional input-output model of optimization with detailed energy sector. Its essence is to increase step by step the cost of a new RES technology in the competitive environment of traditional technologies until it leaves the optimal plan. The parametric process involves finding the threshold values of the RES technology cost in the region, passing by which the technology changes its intensity (efficiency) dramatically. A comparative retrospective analysis of RES technologies spreading in the country and regions is carried out. It is shown the importance of taking into account the installed capacity utilization factor when modeling technologies. Formal procedures for embedding it in energy technologies of the model are described. The trajectories of integrated effects fr om spreading of renewable energy technologies, obtained as a result of parametric analysis, can be ranked by region and used for selective investment policy on the part of the state. It should be aimed at supporting the development of energy on RES primarily in those regions wh ere the maximum integral effect is obtained.