Competitive Balance: Time Series Lessons from the English Premier League

Abstract

Structural break points in the First Division/English Premier League time series of competitive balance identify an Early Period, a Pre-World War II Period, a Post-War Period, and a Modern Period. The Early Period corresponds to technology diffusion (defense and tactics) along with important economic structural imposition by leagues. The war periods are common to many time series. The Modern Periodi¯s sharp decline in balance corresponds to the newest version of the Champions League in 1994/1995, increased revenue inequality, and the Bosman Ruling of 1995. Suggestions for future research are many.