bad mathematics of the bad luck theory

Abstract

The mathematics of the Bad Luck theory of carcinogenesis by Tomasetti and Vogelstein generated a great deal of controversy among cancer specialists but did not draw the mathematicians' attention. Thus the gross mathematical mistakes of the theory foundation did not get a proper critique and remained unnoticed. As a result, the sensational quantitative estimates of the role of Bad Luck in cancer occurrence, though being erroneous, have spread widely among researchers and the general public and got the unfair popularity. The present paper reviews the actual mathematical mistakes of Bad Luck theory.