МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ СИСТЕМИ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ВТРАТ ЗМЕНШЕННЯ БІЗНЕСУ В УМОВАХ СУЧАСНИХ ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ І ЛОКАЛЬНИХ ВИКЛИКІВ

Abstract

The systemic and long-term impact of global and local challenges deepens the development of crisis phenomena in all spheres of public life and the national economy of Ukraine, covering production, social and labor, financial and other subsystems. Under such conditions, the problem of modeling the system of reducing the business risk losses, which would be oriented towards preventing crisis manifestations in financial and economic activity and painlessly overcoming negative consequences in order to ensure social and economic development, becomes relevant. The purpose of the article is to model the system of economic losses reducing of business in the conditions of permanent of modern global and local challenges. The object of the research is the economic losses reduction of business that arise as a result of global and local challenges. Methods used in the study: methods of scientific knowledge, namely analysis and synthesis, induction, measurement, observation, formalization, logical-analytical techniques, as well as the methodological apparatus of financial analysis and mathematical statistics. The main hypothesis of the study is the researching that the economic losses reduction of business should be based on methods, which will make it possible to correctly identify probable risks and to develop an effective system for overcoming their negative consequences in a timely manner. Presenting main material. The study analyzed the results of global and local challenges to the activities of business in Ukraine, namely social and behavioral restrictions caused by the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to prevent the negative impact of uncertainty factors, the authors have developed a conceptual approach to modeling the system of economic losses reducing of business in the conditions of modern global and local challenges. The basic stages of building a system of economic losses leveling have been determined, namely: identification of risks of the business' functioning; survival function construction in the conditions of the crisis phenomena spread; evaluation of the risk situation occurrence probability (experience curve); development of a profile of economic losses limitation; construction of Shewhart's control charts; identification of risk areas; development of a profile of the economic entity's response to crisis phenomena (risk leveling). The originality and practical significance of the research lies in the fact that the developed conceptual scheme for modeling the economic loss reduction system can be used and specified in the management of systemic risks, development a profile of responses and a financial restrictions complex of business in the conditions of global and local challenges. Conclusions and prospects for further research: the need to form an individual complex modeling vector of the economic loss leveling system has substantiated. It will enable business to significantly reduce their level in the conditions of permanent global and local challenges in accordance with the methodological tools, the determinants of which should be economic and mathematical methods