Ocena zdolności jednostek samorządu terytorialnego do finansowania projektów inwestycyjnych w perspektywie finansowej 2021–2027

Abstract

Purpose – The aim of the research is to assess the capacity of Polish local governments to finance investments in the EU 2021–2027 multiannual financial framework. Due to the importance of local governments as public investors, their capacity to finance invest-ments, which are largely development projects, is an important factor in increasing the international competitiveness of the entire country.Research method – The research consists in the construction of a forecasting model and then preparation of cash flow forecasts for all local governments in Poland. Four forecast scenarios made it possible to estimate the impact of changes in individual assumptions on the size of the investment capacity of local governments.Results – Forecasts indicate some symptoms of the local government finance crisis and the risk of its aggravation. Maintaining a faster growth rate of current expenditure than cur-rent revenue, with investment needs resulting, inter alia, from the necessity to absorb the EU funds, will lead to an unprecedented increase in debt. This relates primarily to poviat -cities responsible for the implementation of a significant part of public development projects. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – The study was based on the authors’ method of forecasting financial processes in each local government (excluding voivodships). Its results allow the formulation of important conclusions. It was shown that in the case of a large number of local governments, the implementation of investments at the current level will be possible only on condition of a significant reduction in the growth of current expenditures. However, with regard to cities with poviat rights, it may be necessary to change the financing system itself.