The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note.

IF 3.6 1区社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY

Demography Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI:10.1215/00703370-11067917

Alyson A van Raalte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Marília R Nepomuceno, Mikko Myrskylä

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age-period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated from the diagonals of age-period rates because of timing and cohort-size bias, (2) estimate the magnitude of these biases, and (3) illustrate how prediction intervals for cohort indicators of mortality may become implausible when drawn from Lee-Carter methods and age-period grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even when the cohort profiles are created from single-age, single-year period data. The danger is that we overinterpret deviations from expected trends that were induced by our own data manipulation.

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从时期数据中绘制队列概况的危险:一份研究报告。

从年龄阶段数据网格中绘制队列概况和队列预测是人口统计学中的常见做法。在本研究报告中，我们(1)展示了由于时间和队列大小偏差，从年龄阶段率的对角线计算人口统计指标是如何人为波动的，(2)估计了这些偏差的程度，(3)说明了从Lee-Carter方法和年龄阶段网格中得出的死亡率队列指标的预测区间是如何变得不可信的。这些偏差惊人地大，即使是在从单一年龄、单一年份的数据中创建队列概况时也是如此。危险在于，我们过度解读了由我们自己的数据操纵导致的与预期趋势的偏差。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Demography DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

2.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Since its founding in 1964, the journal Demography has mirrored the vitality, diversity, high intellectual standard and wide impact of the field on which it reports. Demography presents the highest quality original research of scholars in a broad range of disciplines, including anthropology, biology, economics, geography, history, psychology, public health, sociology, and statistics. The journal encompasses a wide variety of methodological approaches to population research. Its geographic focus is global, with articles addressing demographic matters from around the planet. Its temporal scope is broad, as represented by research that explores demographic phenomena spanning the ages from the past to the present, and reaching toward the future. Authors whose work is published in Demography benefit from the wide audience of population scientists their research will reach. Also in 2011 Demography remains the most cited journal among population studies and demographic periodicals. Published bimonthly, Demography is the flagship journal of the Population Association of America, reaching the membership of one of the largest professional demographic associations in the world.