Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic

IF 1.7 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economic Policy Pub Date : 2022-11-12 DOI:10.1111/coep.12598

Philip Barrett, Sonali Das, Giacomo Magistretti, Evgenia Pugacheva, Philippe Wingender

引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper examines the potential persistent effects (scarring) of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. Our findings from a broad set of historical recessions confirm that recessions are associated with persistent output losses and that the greatest scarring has occurred following financial crises. The amount of scarring following pandemic and epidemic recessions in the sample is in between that of typical recessions and financial crises. Results on the channels show that the productivity channel is important, as all types of recessions have been followed by persistent losses to total factor productivity.

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COVID多久?大流行造成的经济创伤前景

本文探讨了2019冠状病毒病大流行对经济的潜在持续影响(疤痕)及其可能发生的渠道。我们对一系列历史衰退的研究结果证实，衰退与持续的产出损失有关，而最大的创伤发生在金融危机之后。样本中，流行病和流行病衰退后的疤痕数量介于典型衰退和金融危机之间。渠道的结果表明，生产力渠道是重要的，因为所有类型的衰退都伴随着全要素生产率的持续损失。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economic Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Contemporary Economic Policy publishes scholarly economic research and analysis on issues of vital concern to business, government, and other decision makers. Leading western scholars, including three Nobel laureates, are among CEP"s authors. The objectives are to communicate results of high quality economic analysis to policymakers, focus high quality research and analysis on current policy issues of widespread concern, increase knowledge among economists of features of the economy key to understanding the impact of policy, and to advance methods of policy analysis.