Emerging distress in the US real estate market? Dangers in the current market and tools to mitigate risk

Abstract

Despite the recent downturn in the US economy, real estate has remained an extremely attractive investment class. Although the market has softened, property investors have, to date, been largely insulated from distress. Commercial real estate provides investors with cash flow; a hedge against price instability; low correlation to other asset classes; and low volatility of returns. While of these characteristics provide investors potential refuge, they need to be managed, particularly in difficult economic times. Credit risk, leverage risk, geographic market risk, and exit risk are all important elements. Although the US real estate industry, for once, has not been a cause of the recession, understanding and managing these risks is important for the commercial property market to escape the effects of the current downturn. These facts have placed stress on the property market and forced new roles on all participants in the capital structure of real estate investments. This paper will outline various dangers in the current real estate market as well as highlight tools that the industry can use that may mitigate these risks. The paper will also attempt to quantify today's property market dynamics in an effort to plot the current phase of the cycle. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications.