Zoe Sessions, Tesia Bobrowski, Holli-Joi Martin, Jon-Michael T Beasley, Aneri Kothari, Trevor Phares, Michael Li, Vinicius M Alves, Marcus T Scotti, Nathaniel J Moorman, Ralph Baric, Alexander Tropsha, Eugene N Muratov
{"title":"Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?","authors":"Zoe Sessions, Tesia Bobrowski, Holli-Joi Martin, Jon-Michael T Beasley, Aneri Kothari, Trevor Phares, Michael Li, Vinicius M Alves, Marcus T Scotti, Nathaniel J Moorman, Ralph Baric, Alexander Tropsha, Eugene N Muratov","doi":"10.1093/femsre/fuad048","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.</p>","PeriodicalId":12201,"journal":{"name":"FEMS microbiology reviews","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10532129/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"FEMS microbiology reviews","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/femsre/fuad048","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MICROBIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Understanding the origins of past and present viral epidemics is critical in preparing for future outbreaks. Many viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, have led to significant consequences not only due to their virulence, but also because we were unprepared for their emergence. We need to learn from large amounts of data accumulated from well-studied, past pandemics and employ modern informatics and therapeutic development technologies to forecast future pandemics and help minimize their potential impacts. While acknowledging the complexity and difficulties associated with establishing reliable outbreak predictions, herein we provide a perspective on the regions of the world that are most likely to be impacted by future outbreaks. We specifically focus on viruses with epidemic potential, namely SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, DENV, ZIKV, MAYV, LASV, noroviruses, influenza, Nipah virus, hantaviruses, Oropouche virus, MARV, and Ebola virus, which all require attention from both the public and scientific community to avoid societal catastrophes like COVID-19. Based on our literature review, data analysis, and outbreak simulations, we posit that these future viral epidemics are unavoidable, but that their societal impacts can be minimized by strategic investment into basic virology research, epidemiological studies of neglected viral diseases, and antiviral drug discovery.
期刊介绍:
Title: FEMS Microbiology Reviews
Journal Focus:
Publishes reviews covering all aspects of microbiology not recently surveyed
Reviews topics of current interest
Provides comprehensive, critical, and authoritative coverage
Offers new perspectives and critical, detailed discussions of significant trends
May contain speculative and selective elements
Aimed at both specialists and general readers
Reviews should be framed within the context of general microbiology and biology
Submission Criteria:
Manuscripts should not be unevaluated compilations of literature
Lectures delivered at symposia must review the related field to be acceptable